Direct:
Kioxia (TYO: 285A) is laying groundwork for NAND it can't ship until the next decade. The company is studying a brand-new fab building at its Kitakami site in Iwate, with production penciled in for after 2029-2030. It sits on top of a plan that was already aggressive.
That earlier plan calls for doubling Japanese output by fiscal 2029 against fiscal 2024, done mostly by filling out line space at Yokkaichi and the Kitakami K2 building that started up last September. K2 began on 218-layer BiCS8 and is being repurposed for 332-layer BiCS10 this year. Capex for the Kioxia/SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) venture is running about $4.5 billion in 2026, up roughly 41% year over year. A fresh building targeting post-2030 production is a separate, later bet sitting beyond that doubling.
Kioxia is treating this as structural demand rather than a cyclical spike. Its own framing has AI-related demand going from about a fifth of NAND in 2026 to nearly half by 2029, with total bit demand compounding around 20% a year. If those numbers hold, line expansions inside existing shells could run out of room before the demand does, and you need new cleanroom to keep pace into the 2030s. A new fab is a multi-year commitment placed years ahead of the revenue it serves.
The timing is the important part. None of this touches the current shortage. Kioxia's 2026 output is already sold out, supply stays tight into 2027, and Goldman models NAND in deficit through 2028. A fab that comes online after 2030 does nothing for any of that.
For anyone buying drives, the capacity that might loosen pricing is the K2 ramp and the FY2029 doubling, and much of that relief looks likely to be absorbed by AI and data-center demand before it shows up in retail. The new Kitakami building is Kioxia signaling it expects the squeeze to outlast the expansion already underway.
Drafted with AI assistance against parallel reporting.
Sources:
- DIGITIMES Asia (June 4, 2026): Kioxia evaluating new NAND fab at Kitakami, Iwate, production targeted after 2029-2030
- Kioxia / SanDisk (Sept 2025): start of Fab2 (K2) operation at Kitakami, 218-layer BiCS8 with CBA bonding, ramping into H1 2026
- TrendForce (Dec 2025): Kioxia to mass-produce 332-layer BiCS10 at Kitakami in 2026 by repurposing K2, ~59% density gain over 218-layer
- TrendForce (June 2026): Kioxia/SanDisk 2026 capex ~$4.5B, up ~41% YoY
- Kioxia Holdings mid/long-term plan (June 2025): double Japan output by FY2029 vs FY2024, ~20% annual NAND demand growth, AI-related NAND from ~1/5 in 2026 to ~half by 2029
- Tom's Hardware / Kioxia exec (early 2026): 2026 NAND sold out, tight supply through 2027
- Goldman Sachs (via market coverage, late May 2026): NAND in deficit through 2028
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