DRAM capacity and equipment spending trends

The DigiTimes line this week is that the AI memory squeeze doesn't ease before 2028. That's now the prevailing read in the parallel coverage, and the timeline looks optimistic if anything.

Demand side: Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta are committed to roughly $725 billion in combined 2026 capex, up 77% from last year's $410 billion. Microsoft's Amy Hood explicitly attributed $25 billion of that to higher component pricing on the FY26 Q3 call. Meta raised its full-year range to $125 to $145 billion citing higher component pricing, which call commentary and trade press have pinned squarely on memory. These aren't vague sell-side forecasts, they're company guidance from the most recent earnings cycle.

Supply side hasn't moved nearly as fast. TrendForce has Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron at roughly $20B, $20.5B, and $13.5B in 2026 capex, with bit supply growth held to the mid-teens because the spending is going into HBM4 tooling, hybrid bonding, and 1c/1-gamma process transitions rather than greenfield wafer capacity. SK Hynix's M15X is pulled forward but starts at 10,000 wafers per month. Samsung's P5 is a 2028 story (see my recent news post). Micron's ID1 is 2027 at earliest.

The reason this matters for everything else: HBM stacks consume roughly 3x the wafer capacity per bit of conventional DDR5, and the advanced packaging lines that build them are the same lines that would otherwise feed server DRAM, LPDDR, and enterprise NAND. Every wafer going to HBM is a wafer not going to commodity memory.

That's where the supplier strategy shift the DigiTimes piece hints at actually lives. With HBM consuming a rising share of SK Hynix's DRAM output (The Bell put it near 30% for 2025, climbing toward 40% by 2027) and Samsung converting 1a to 1b lines for general-purpose memory, suppliers are explicitly choosing margin over volume. They are not going to be talked out of it by a cloud provider waving a contract. Two-year LTAs through 2028 cement that.

For consumer SSD readers, the consequence is already visible. Phison's Khein-Seng Pua said in November that 2026 NAND is fully committed. PC OEMs are reportedly downgrading SSD capacities in 2026 builds. A 1TB consumer drive that sat near $45 in mid-2025 is closer to $90 now. Nothing in the supplier capex picture suggests this reverses meaningfully before late 2027.

The 2028 floor in the DigiTimes thesis is the optimistic read.

Sources:

• DigiTimes, “The AI memory squeeze may not ease before 2028” (May 11, 2026, above-paywall stub)
• Microsoft FY26 Q3 earnings call transcript (Apr 2026)
• Meta Q1 2026 earnings release (Apr 2026)
• Tom's Hardware, $725B capex coverage and “HBM is eating your RAM” wafer-capacity piece (Dec 2025, Apr/May 2026)
• TrendForce: “Memory Industry to Maintain Cautious CapEx in 2026” (Nov 13, 2025); “AI Server Demand to Drive Memory Contract Price Increases in 2Q26” (Mar 31, 2026); “NAND Flash 'Dry Year' Looms” via Commercial Times (Dec 10, 2025); 30% HBM-of-DRAM figure from The Bell via TrendForce (Oct 2, 2025)
• StorageSwiss, “Memory and Flash Prices Are Not Coming Down” (May 6, 2026)
• DataCenterDynamics on Samsung/SK Hynix 2026 fab buildout (May 2026)