Direct:
Caught this on X earlier today (some dislike my linking to random accounts on there) and forgot to do a summary. Source for those who don't mind. Summary:
- The memory market averaged ~$130B/year from 2017–2024. JPM's 2026 estimate is $971B; that's a revision upward from their previous $936B.
- DRAM alone: $143B (2025) -> $634B (2026E), a +343% jump in one year. NAND: +374%.
- The entire semiconductor industry was ~$630B in 2024. JPM thinks memory alone passes that this year, putting memory at 55%+ of all chip revenue vs. a historical 25–30%.
- JPM estimates DRAM prices up 400%+ from early 2024 to end of 2026. TrendForce recorded the steepest quarterly contract price hikes in history in Q1 (+90–95% QoQ for DRAM).
- HBM is eating the wafer supply at ~3x the area per GB of DRAM and will be 43% of DRAM value by 2027, also everyone is sold out through 2027 with new fab in late 2027/2028
- Unfortunately this means RAM and SSD prices aren't coming down any time soon. This is unprecedented.
Reddit: https://ift.tt/p7V4ODH