Direct:
The cash powering the memory boom right now comes mostly from ordinary server and PC DRAM. HBM gets the headlines and the strategic worry, but the bulk-DRAM tier is where the money is being made, at numbers nobody had in their models a year ago. Samsung (KRX: 005930) flagged average memory selling prices up roughly 146% against its 2025 average. DRAM contract prices climbed 90% to 95% quarter on quarter in Q1. SK Hynix (KRX: 000660) posted operating profit up 405% year over year on a 72% operating margin. TrendForce has conventional DRAM contracts rising another 58% to 63% in Q2, with NAND up 70% to 75%. Goldman Sachs pegs the 2026 DRAM supply gap at 4.9%, the tightest in fifteen years.
There is a wrinkle the “DRAM now, HBM later” framing skips. Server DDR5 has become more profitable per bit than HBM3E this year, the first time bulk-class memory has crossed above the premium stack on margin. Suppliers shifting wafers toward HBM is what starves the commodity side and feeds those contract spikes, so the shortage and the boom both run across every product tier at once.
The longer-term question is really which of the two Koreans comes out ahead. SK Hynix owns HBM, around half to 60% of the market depending on whose quarter you read, and it took roughly two-thirds of Nvidia's (NASDAQ: NVDA) HBM4 allocation for the Vera Rubin platform. That leadership is what justifies its valuation. Samsung is countering on two fronts: it cleared Nvidia's HBM4 qualification and is back as a Vera Rubin supplier, and it has pulled ahead of SK Hynix on commodity DRAM, where it is leading the price gains. Micron (NASDAQ: MU) is the third HBM4 source and has been taking share too.
For anyone tracking consumer SSDs or DIMM prices, this is why the pain is not letting up. Every wafer that moves to HBM or server DDR5 is one not making client parts, and with margins like these, nobody is shifting capacity back toward the retail channel.
Drafted with AI assistance against parallel reporting.
Sources:
- DigiTimes, “Commentary: Memory boom driven by DRAM now, but HBM will decide future” (June 5, 2026, paywalled stub: headline and lead only)
- TrendForce, “Memory 1Q26 Price Surge: Samsung Flags 146% ASP Jump, SK hynix Sees Mid-60% DRAM Gains” (May 18, 2026): Samsung ASP, Q1 DRAM contract jump
- TrendForce, “AI Server Demand to Drive Memory Contract Price Increases in 2Q26” (March 31, 2026) and 2Q26 forecast coverage via Tom's Hardware: conventional DRAM +58-63%, NAND +70-75%, PC DDR5 +43-48% in Q2
- TrendForce, “Tight DRAM Supply to Boost DDR5 Contract Prices, Profitability in 2026 Expected to Surpass HBM3e” (Oct 2025): server DDR5 out-earning HBM3E
- SK Hynix Q1 2026 earnings coverage (operating profit +405% YoY, 72% margin, revenue +198% YoY); SK Hynix “completely sold out” remarks
- Counterpoint / TrendForce HBM market share data (1Q26): SK Hynix roughly half to ~60% of HBM, Samsung ~28-30%, Micron rising
- TrendForce / KED Global, “SK hynix to Supply About Two-Thirds of NVIDIA HBM4; Samsung Targets Early Delivery” (Jan-March 2026): Vera Rubin HBM4 allocation, Samsung HBM4 qualification
- DigiTimes, “Samsung pulls ahead of SK Hynix as commodity DRAM prices surge” (related-headline stub, 2026): Samsung leading commodity DRAM price gains
- Goldman Sachs 2026 DRAM supply-demand gap (4.9%, most severe in 15 years), cited in memory super-cycle coverage
Reddit: https://ift.tt/Cyg1aEq