Direct:
Korea's HBM commitment is now showing up well outside HBM. The pressure has reached legacy DRAM, advanced packaging, and final test, and it is no longer confined to the leading edge.
Start with the wafer math. Samsung (005930.KS) and SK Hynix (000660.KS) are aiming their best capacity at HBM4 and 1c-nanometer nodes, with Samsung's P3 ramping toward 115,000 wafers/month by end-2026 and SK Hynix's M15X dedicated to HBM3e and HBM4. Micron (MU) is converting its Taiwan A3 fab into an advanced packaging line rather than adding DRAM. HBM is reported to consume roughly three times the wafer capacity of an equivalent DDR5 line, so every HBM ramp subtracts from commodity supply. IDC puts 2026 DRAM bit-supply growth near 16%, well below the historical norm.
Taiwan's second tier is moving into that gap. Nanya (2408.TW) and Winbond (2344.TW) are leaning into the DDR4 and LPDDR4 the Koreans are walking away from, with Winbond pushing its Kaohsiung fab from 25nm to 20nm to widen DDR4 output. They are doing it because DDR4 pricing is at record highs.
The packaging and test side gets less attention and matters just as much. Combined 2026 capex for ASE (ASX), Powertech (6239.TW) and King Yuan Electronics (2449.TW) is tracking near NT$370 billion, all three at record highs. KYEC alone is adding 30 to 50% test capacity for AI GPU and ASIC validation and high-power burn-in. ASE's advanced packaging and test unit is guiding to around $3.5 billion, up about 118% year over year. CoWoS is already sold out through 2026.
For anyone who only buys consumer SSDs, the choke point you track is getting wider. It was HBM and CoWoS; it now also includes DDR4 and back-end test slots. When the same OSAT lines that finish AI accelerators are booked solid, commodity NAND controllers and client DRAM sit further back in the same queue. Pricing relief is not a 2026 story.
Drafted with AI assistance against parallel reporting.
Sources:
- DigiTimes, “Taiwan chipmakers quietly fill gaps left by Korea's HBM push” (May 2026, paywalled stub: headline and deck only)
- TrendForce, “Memory Giants' HBM Focus Could Limit DRAM Growth Through 2026; Taiwan Firms Boost DDR4” (Oct 17, 2025)
- TrendForce, “ASE, Powertech, KYEC CapEx May Hit NT$370B This Year as AI Drives Record OSAT Investment” (May 5, 2026)
- DigiTimes, “AI boom drives Taiwan's semiconductor testing industry into record expansion” (May 11, 2026, headline)
- IDC, “Global Memory Shortage Crisis: Market Analysis and the Potential Impact on the Smartphone and PC Markets in 2026” (Dec 2025)
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